According to economists, the US economy and trucking industry set for a strong recovery in the second half of 2021. The improvement is entirely dependent on the $1.9 trillion in federal stimulus and the vaccination process. The two will give people the opportunity to return to normal economic activities.

Back into the business in the 2nd half of the year

American Trucking Associations Chief Economist Bob Costello remained optimistic, predicting even more GDP growth by 7% from 5%. BMO Capital Markets reported that American households saved $1.7 trillion in 2020. Costello reiterated that spending the money spared during the tough times would boost the economy. The pandemic led to most people holding back in terms of spending. Most people will dive back into the businesses in the second half of 2021.

Costello stated that all sectors of the trucking industry would experience an increase in business. He, however, added that the biggest challenge would be the driver shortage. Before the pandemic, the insufficiency was at least 60,000. The inadequacy rose during the pandemic as most veteran drivers retired. Recruitments reduced drastically due to closure and disruption of services in the transportation sector and driving schools. FMCSAs' Drug and Alcohol Clearinghouse database also led to the retraction of some drivers from the industry.

Economist Rajeev Dhawan, director of the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State University in Atlanta, claimed that it would take a year for the economy to return to normalcy. He acknowledged that consumer spending would rise from the stimulus money and the money spared during the pandemic. Though he was optimistic, he stated that the significant determinant would be how quickly the vaccine reaches the majority population.

University of Minnesota-Morris professor and economist Stephen Burks was optimistic that later in 2021, the economy would be better. His only concern was another strain of Covid-19 that may spread, leading to more restrictions slowing down the recovery process. Professor Dale Rogers at Arizona State University said that the projected strong recovery would pose a challenge to an already tight market capacity in the industry. Dale, however, remained optimistic that the spending would rise, boosting the economy.